I need to preface this
article with a few clarifications. I have taken a long sabbatical leave from
partisan politics, and it is real fun watching the drama from the balcony. Having had my own share of public service (I
do not need a job from government), I now devote my time and energy in pursuit
of other passions, especially abroad.
My advice to President Jonathan and his handlers is to stop wasting their time trying to campaign on his job record. Those who have decided to vote for him will not do so because he has taken Nigeria to the moon. His record on the economy is a clear ‘F’ grade. As one reviews the laundry list of micro interventions the government calls its achievements, one wonders whether such list is all that the government could deliver with an unprecedented oil boom and an unprecedented public debt accumulation.
For a $540 billion economy, the so-called luxury tax amounts to zero per cent of GDP. If the current trend continues, private businesses will come under a heavy crunch soon. Having put economics on its head during the boom time, the Government now proposes to increase taxes during a prospective downturn and impose austerity measures. Unbelievable!
A few days ago, I read an
article in Thisday entitled “Where is Charles Soludo?”, and my answer is that I
am still there, only that I have been too busy with extensive international
travels to participate in or comment on our national politics and economy. But
I occasionally follow events at home. Since the survival and prosperity of
Nigeria are at stake, the least some of us (albeit, non-partisan) must do is to
engage in public debate. As the elections approach, I owe a duty to share some
of my concerns.
In September 2010, I wrote
a piece entitled “2011 Elections: Let the Real Debate Begin” and published by
Thisday. I understand the Federal Executive Council discussed it, and the
Minister of Information rained personal attacks on me during the press
briefing. I noted more than six newspaper editorials in support of the issues
we raised.
Beside other issues we
raised, our main thesis was that the macro economy was dangerously adrift, with
little self-insurance mechanisms (and a prediction that if oil prices fell
below $40, many state governments would not be able to pay salaries). I gave a
subtle hint at easy money and exchange rate depreciations because I did not
want to panic the market with a strong statement. Sadly, on the eve of the next
elections, literally everything we hinted at has happened. Part of my motivation for this article is
that five years after, the real debate is still not happening.
The presidential election
next month will be won by either Buhari or Jonathan. For either, it is likely
to be a pyrrhic victory. None of them will be able to deliver on the fantastic
promises being made on the economy, and if oil prices remain below $60, I see
very difficult months ahead, with possible heady collisions with labour, civil
society, and indeed the citizenry. To be sure, the presidential election will
not be decided by the quality of ‘issues’ or promises canvassed by the
candidates.
The debates won’t also
change much (except if there is a major gaffe by either candidate like Tofa did
in the debate with Abiola). My take is that more than 95% of the likely voters
have pretty much made up their minds based largely on other considerations. A
few of us remain undecided.
During my brief visit to
Nigeria, I watched some of the campaign rallies on television. The tragedy of
the current electioneering campaigns is that both parties are missing the
golden opportunity to sensitize the citizenry about the enormous challenges
ahead and hence mobilize them for the inevitable sacrifices they would be
called upon to make soon. Each is promising an El-Dorado.
Let me admit that the two
main parties talk around the major development challenges—corruption,
insecurity, economy (unemployment/poverty, power, infrastructure, etc) health,
education, etc. However, it is my considered view that none of them has any
credible agenda to deal with the issues, especially within the context of the
evolving global economy and Nigeria’s broken public finance.
The UK Conservative Party’s
manifesto for the last election proudly announced that all its programmes were
fully costed and were therefore implementable. Neither APC nor PDP can make a
similar claim. A plan without the dollar
or Naira signs to it is nothing but a wish-list. They are not telling us how
much each of their promises will cost and where they will get the money. None
talks about the broken or near bankrupt public finance and the strategy to fix
it.
Goodluck-Jonathan-new
In response to the question of where the money
will come from, I heard one of the politicians say that the problem of Nigeria
was not money but the management of resources. This is half-truth. The problem
is both. No matter how efficient a father (with a monthly salary of N50,000) is
at managing the family resources, I cannot see how he could deliver on a
promise to buy a brand new Peugeot 406 for each of his three children in a
year.
Even with all the loopholes
and waste closed, with increased efficiency per dollar spent, there is still a
binding budget constraint. To deliver an efficient national transport
infrastructure alone will still cost tens of billions of dollars per annum even
by corruption-free, cost-effective means.
Did I hear that APC promises a welfare system that will pay between
N5,000 and N10,000 per month to the poorest 25 million Nigerians? Just this programme alone will cost between
N1.5 and N3 trillion per annum.
Add to this the cost of
free primary education plus free meal (to be funded by the federal budget or
would it force non-APC state governments to implement the same?), plus some
millions of public housing, etc. I have tried to cost some of the promises by
both the APC and the PDP, given alternative scenarios for public finance and
the numbers don’t add up. Nigerians
would be glad to know how both parties would fund their programmes.
Do they intend to
accentuate the huge public debt, or raise taxes on the soon to-be-beleaguered
private businesses, or massively devalue the naira to rake in baskets of naira
from the dwindling oil revenue, or embark on huge fiscal retrenchment with the sack
of labour and abandonment of projects, and which areas of waste do they intend
to close and how much do they estimate to rake in from them, etc?
I remember that Chief
Obafemi Awolowo was asked similar questions in 1978 and 1979 about his promises
of free education and free medical services. Even as a teenager, I was
impressed by how he reeled out figures
about the amounts he would save from various ‘waste’ including the tea/coffee
served in government offices. The point is that at least he did his homework
and had his numbers and I give credit to his team.
Some 36 years later, the
quality of political debate and discourse seems to border on the pedestrian.
From the quality of its team, I did not expect much from the current
government, but I must confess that I expected APC as a party aspiring to take
over from PDP to come up with a knock-out punch. Evidently, from what we have
read from the various versions of its manifesto as well as the depth of
promises being made, it does not seem that it has a better offer.
Let me digress a bit to
refresh our memory on where we are, and thus provide the context in which to
evaluate the promises being made to us. Recall that the key word of the 2015
budget is ‘austerity’. Austerity? This
is just within a few months of the fall in oil prices. History repeats itself
in a very cruel way, as this was exactly what happened under the Shehu Shagari
administration.
Under the Shagari
government, oil price reached its highest in 1980/81. During the same period,
Nigeria ratcheted up its consumption and all tiers of government were in
competition as to which would out-borrow the other. Huge public debt was the
consequence. When oil prices crashed in early 1982, the National Assembly then
passed the Economic Stabilization (Austerity Measures) Act in one day— going
through the first, second, and third readings the same day.
The austerity measures
included the rationing of ‘essential commodities’ and most states owed salary
arrears. Corruption was said to be pervasive, and as Sani Abacha said in that
famous coup speech, ‘unemployment has reached unacceptable proportions and our
hospitals have become mere consulting clinics’.
General Muhammadu
Buhari/Tunde Idiagbon regime made the fight against corruption and restoration
of discipline the cardinal point of their administration which lasted for 20
months. I am not sure they had a credible plan to get the economy out of the
doldrums (although it must be admitted that poverty incidence in Nigeria as of
1985 when they left office was a just46%— according to the Federal Office of
Statistics).
We have come full circle.
If the experience under Shagari could be excused as an unexpected shock, what
Nigeria is going through now is a consequence of our deliberate wrong
choices. We have always known that the
unprecedented oil boom (in both price and quantity—despite oil theft) of the
last six years is temporary but the government chose to treat it as a permanent
shock. The parallels with the Shagari regime are troubling.
First, at the time of oil
boom, Nigeria again went on a consumption spree such that the budgets of the
last five years can best be described as ‘consumption budgets’, with new
borrowing by the federal government exceeding the actual expenditure on
critical infrastructure. Second, not one penny was added to the stock of
foreign reserves at a period Nigeria earned hundreds of billions from oil.
For comparisons, President
Obasanjo met about $5 billion in foreign reserves, and the average monthly oil
price for the 72 months he was in office was $38, and yet he left $43 billion
in foreign reserves after paying $12 billion to write-off Nigeria’s external
debt. In the last five years, the average monthly oil price has been over $100,
and the quantity also higher but our foreign reserves have been declining and
exchange rate depreciating.
I note that when I assumed
office as Governor of CBN, the stock of foreign reserves was $10 billion. The
average monthly oil price during my 60 months in office was $59, but foreign
reserve reached the all-time peak of $62 billion (and despite paying $12
billion for external debt, and losing over $15 billion during the unprecedented
global financial and economic crisis) I left behind $45 billion.
Recall also that our
exchange rate continuously appreciated during this period and was at N117 to
the dollar before the global crisis and we deliberately allowed it to
depreciate in order to preserve our reserves.
My calculation is that if the economy was better managed, our foreign
reserves should have been between $102 –$118 billion and exchange rate around
N112 before the fall in oil prices. As of now, the reserves should be around
$90 billion and exchange rate no higher than N125 per dollar.
Third, the rate of public
debt accumulation at a time of unprecedented boom had no parallel in the
world. While the Obasanjo administration
bought and enlarged the policy space for Nigeria, the current government has
sold and constricted it. What debt
relief did for Nigeria was to liberate Nigerian policymakers from the intrusive
conditionalities of the creditors and thereby truly allowing Nigeria
independence in its public policy.
How have we used the
independence? Through our own choices,
we have yet again tied the hands of future policymakers. This time, the debt is
not necessarily to foreign creditor institutions/governments which are
organized under the Paris club but largely to private agents which is even more
volatile. We call it domestic debt. But if one carefully unpacks the bond
portfolio, what percentage of it is held by foreign private agents? And I
understand the Government had removed the speed bumps we kept to slow the speed
of capital flight, and someone is sweating to explain the gyrations in foreign
reserves. I am just smiling!
In sum, the mismanagement
of our economy has brought us once more to the brink. Government officials rely
on the artificial construct of debt to GDP ratio to tell us we can borrow as
much as we want. That is nonsense, especially
for an economy with a mono but highly volatile source of revenue and forex
earnings. The chicken will soon come home to roost.
Today, the combined
domestic and external debt of the Federal Government is in excess of $40
billion. Add to this the fact that abandoned capital projects littered all over
the country amount to over $50 billion.
No word yet on other huge contingent liabilities. If oil prices continue to fall, I bet that
Nigeria will soon have a heavy debt burden even with low debt to GDP ratio.
Furthermore, given the
current and capital account regime, it is evident that Nigeria does not have
enough foreign reserves to adequately cover for imports plus short term
liabilities. In essence, we are
approaching the classic of what the Shagari government faced, and no wonder the
hasty introduction of ‘austerity measures’ again.
Fourth, poverty incidence
and unemployment are also simultaneously at all-time high levels. According to
the NBS, poverty incidence grew to 69%
in 2010 and projected to be 71% in 2011, with unemployment at 24%. This is the worst record in Nigeria’s
history, and the paradox is that this happened during the unprecedented oil
boom.
One theme I picked up
listening to the campaign rallies as well as to some of the propagandists is
the confusion about measuring government “performance”. Most people seem to
confuse ‘inputs’, or ‘processes’ with output. Earlier this month, I had a
dinner with a group of friends (14 of us) and we were chit-chatting about
Nigeria. One of us, an associate of President Jonathan veered off to repeat a
propaganda mantra that Jonathan had outperformed his predecessors.
He also reminded us that
Jonathan re-based the GDP and that Nigeria is now the biggest economy in
Africa; etc. It was fun listening to the
response by others. In sum, the group agreed that the President had
‘outperformed’ his predecessors except that it is in reverse order.
First, my friend was educated
that re-basing the GDP is no achievement: it is a routine statistical exercise,
and depending on the base year that you choose, you get a different GDP
figure. Re-basing the GDP has nothing to
do with government policy. Besides, as naira-dollar exchange rate continues to
depreciate, the GDP in current dollars will also shrink considerably soon.
We were reminded of
Jonathan’s agricultural ‘revolution’. But someone cut in and noted that for all
the propaganda, the growth rate of the agricultural sector in the last five
years still remains far below the performance under Obasanjo.
One of us
reminded him that no other president had presided over the slaughter of about
15,000 people by insurgents in a peacetime; no other president earned up to 50%
of the amount of resources the current government earned from oil and yet with
very little outcomes; no other president had the rate of borrowing; none had
significant forex earnings and yet did not add one penny to foreign reserves
but losing international reserves at a time of boom; no other president had a
depreciating exchange rate at a time of export boom; at no time in Nigeria’s
history has poverty reached 71% (even under Abacha, it was 67 -70%); and under
no other president did unemployment reach 24%. Surely, these are unprecedented
records and he surely ‘outperformed’ his predecessors! What a satire!
One of those present took
the satire to some level by comparing Jonathan to the ‘performance’ of the
former Governor of Anambra, Peter Obi.
He noted that while Obi gloated about ‘savings’, there is no signature
project to remember his regime except that his regime took the first position
among all states in Nigeria in the democratization of poverty—- mass
impoverishment of the people of Anambra. According to the National Bureau of
Statistics, poverty rose under his watch in Anambra from 20% in 2004 (lowest in
Nigeria then) to 68% in 2010 (a 238% deterioration!).
Our friend likened it to a
father who had no idea of what to do with his resources and was celebrating his
fat bank account while his children were dying of kwashiorkor. He pointed out that since it is the likes of Peter
Obi who are the advisers to Jonathan on how to manage the economy (thereby
confusing micromanagement which you do as a trader with macro governance) it is
little wonder that poverty is fast becoming another name for Nigeria. It was a
very hilarious evening.
My advice to President Jonathan and his handlers is to stop wasting their time trying to campaign on his job record. Those who have decided to vote for him will not do so because he has taken Nigeria to the moon. His record on the economy is a clear ‘F’ grade. As one reviews the laundry list of micro interventions the government calls its achievements, one wonders whether such list is all that the government could deliver with an unprecedented oil boom and an unprecedented public debt accumulation.
I can clearly see why
reasonable people are worried.
Everywhere else in the world, government performance on the economy is
measured by some outcome variables such as: income (GDP growth rate), stability
of prices (inflation and exchange rate), unemployment rate, poverty rate, etc.
On all these scores, this government has performed worse than its immediate
predecessor— Obasanjo regime. If we appropriately adjust for oil income and
debt, then this government is the worst in our history on the economy. All
statistics are from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Despite presiding over the
biggest oil boom in our history, it has not added one percentage point to the
growth rate of GDP compared to the Obasanjo regime especially the 2003- 07
period. Obasanjo met GDP growth rate at
2% but averaged 7% within 2003- 07. The current government has been stuck at 6%
despite an unprecedented oil boom.
Income (GDP) growth has actually performed worse, and poverty escalated.
This is the only government
in our history where rapidly increasing government expenditure was associated
with increasing poverty. The director general of NBS stated in his written
press conference address in 2011 that about 112 million Nigerians were living
in poverty. Is this the record to defend?
Obama had a tough time in his re-election in 2012 because unemployment
reached 8%. Here, unemployment is at a record 24% and poverty at an all-time
71% but people are prancing around, gloating about ‘performance’.
As I write, the Naira
exchange rate to the dollar is $210 at the parallel market. What a historic
performance! Please save your breathe and save us the embarrassment.
The President promised
Nigeria nothing in the last election and we did not get value for money. He
should this time around present us with his plan for the future, and focus on
how he would redeem himself in the second term—if he wins!
Sadly the government’s
economic team is very weak, dominated by self-interested and self-conflicted
group of traders and businessmen, and so-called economic team meetings have
been nothing but showbiz time. The very people government exists to regulate have
seized the levers of government as policymakers and most government
institutions have largely been “privatized” to them.
Mention any major
government department or agency and someone will tell you whom it has been
‘allocated’ to, and the person subsequently nominates his minion to occupy the
seat. What do you then expect? The
economy seems to be on auto pilot, with confusion as to who is in charge, and
government largely as a constraint. There are no big ideas, and it is difficult
to see where economic policy is headed to.
My thesis is that the
Nigerian economy, if properly managed, should have been growing at an annual
rate of about 12% given the oil boom, and poverty and unemployment should have
fallen dramatically over the last five years. This is topic for another day.
So far, the Government’s
response to the self-inflicted crisis is, at best, laughable. They blame
external shocks as if we did not expect them and say nothing about the terrible
policy choices they made. The National Assembly had described the 2015 budget
as unrealistic. The fiscal adjustments proposed in the 2015 budget simply play
to the gallery and just to pander to our emotions.
For a $540 billion economy, the so-called luxury tax amounts to zero per cent of GDP. If the current trend continues, private businesses will come under a heavy crunch soon. Having put economics on its head during the boom time, the Government now proposes to increase taxes during a prospective downturn and impose austerity measures. Unbelievable!
Fortuitously, just as he
succeeded Shagari when Nigeria faced similar situations, Buhari is once more
seeking to lead Nigeria. But times have changed, and Nigeria is largely
different. First, this is a democracy and dealing with corruption must happen
within the ambit of the rule of law and due process. Getting things done in a
democracy requires complicated bargaining, especially where the legislature,
labour, the media, and civil society have become strong and entrenched.
Second, the size, structure
and institutions of the economy have fundamentally altered. The market economy,
especially the capital market and foreign exchange market, impose binding
constraints and discipline on any regime.
Third, dealing with most of the other issues— insecurity, unemployment/poverty,
infrastructure, health, education, etc, require increased, smarter, and more
efficient spending. Increased spending when the economy is on the reverse gear?
If oil prices remain
between 40- 60 dollars over the next two years, the current policy regime
guarantees that foreign reserves will continue the precipitous depletion with
the attendant exchange rate depreciation, as well as a probable unsustainable
escalation in debt accumulation, fiscal retrenchment or taxing the private
sector with vengeance. The scenario does not look pretty.
The poor choices made by
the current government have mortgaged the future, and the next government would
have little room to manoeuvre and would inevitably undertake drastic but
painful structural adjustments. Nigerians loathe the term ‘structural
adjustment’. With falling real wages and depreciating currency, I can see any
belated attempt by the government to
deal with the bloated public sector pitching it against a feisty labour. I worry about regime stability in the coming
months, and I do not envy the next team.
The seeming crisis is not
destiny; it is self-imposed. However, we must see it as an opportunity to be
seized to fundamentally restructure Nigeria’s political economy, including its
fiscal federalism and mineral rights. The current system guarantees cycles of
consumption loop and I cannot see sustainable long term prosperity without
major systemic overhaul. The proposals at the national conference merely tinker
at the margins.
In totality, the outcome of
the national conference is to do more of the same, with minor amendments on the
system of sharing and consumption rather than a fundamental overhaul of the
system for productivity and prosperity. President Jonathan promises to
implement the report of the national conference if he wins. I commend him for
at least offering ‘something’, albeit, marginal in my view. I have not heard
anything from the APC or Buhari regarding the national conference report or
what kind of federalism they envisage for Nigeria.
In Nigeria’s recent
history, two examples under the military and civilian governments demonstrate
that where the political will exists, Nigeria has the capacity to overcome
severe challenges. The first was under
President Babangida. Not many Nigerians appreciate that given the near bankrupt
state of Nigeria’s finances and requirements for debt resolution under the
Paris Club, the country had little choice but to undertake the painful
structural adjustment programme (SAP).
I want to state for the
record that the foundation for the current market economy we operate in Nigeria
was laid by that regime (liberalization of markets including market determined
exchange rate, private sector-led economy including licensing of private banks
and insurance, de-regulation, privatization of public enterprises under TCPC,
etc). Just abolishing the import licensing regime was a fundamental policy
revolution. Despite the criticisms, these policy thrusts have remained the
pillars of our deepening market economy, and the economy recovered from almost
negative growth rate to average 5.5% during the regime and poverty incidence at
42% in 1992.
Under our democratic
experience, President Obasanjo inherited a bankrupt economy (with the lost
decade of the 1990’s GDP growth rate of 2.2% and hence zero per capita income
growth for the decade). His regime consolidated and deepened the market economy
structures (consolidation of the banking system which is powering the emergence
of a new but truly private sector-led economy and simultaneously led to a new
awareness and boom in the capital market; telecommunications
revolution; new pension regime; debt relief which won for Nigeria policy
independence from the World Bank and Paris Club; deepening of de-regulation
and privatization including the
unbundling of NEPA under PHCN for privatization; agricultural revolution that
saw yearly growth rate of over 6% and remains unsurpassed ever since; sound monetary and fiscal
policy and growing foreign reserves that gave confidence to investors;
establishment of the Africa Finance Corporation which is leading infrastructure
finance in Africa; backward integration policy that saw the establishment and growth
of Dangote cement and others; established ICPC and EFCC to fight corruption,
etc).
The economy roared to
average yearly growth of 7% between 2003 and 2007 (although average monthly oil
price under his regime was $38), and poverty dropped from estimated 70% in1999
to 54% in 2004. Obasanjo was his own
coordinating minister of the economy and chairman of the economic management
team— which he chaired for 90 minutes every week. I met with him daily. In other words, he did not outsource economic
management.
We expected that the next
government after Obasanjo would take the economy to the next level. So far, we have had two great slogans: the
7-point agenda and currently, the transformation agenda. They remain empty slogans
without content or direction.
Let me suggest that the
fundamental challenge for the next government on the economy can be framed
around the goal of creating twelve million jobs over the next four years to
have a dent on unemployment and poverty. The challenge is to craft a development
agenda to deliver this within the context of broken public finance, and an
economy in which painful structural adjustments will be inevitable if current
trends in oil prices continue. Most other programmes on corruption, security,
power, infrastructure, etc, are expected to be instruments to achieve this
objective.
So far, neither the APC nor
the PDP has a credible programme for employment and poverty reduction. The APC
promises to create 20,000 jobs per state in the first year, totalling a mere
720,000 jobs. This sounds like a quota
system and for a country where the new entrants into the labour market per
annum exceed two million.
If it was intended as a
joke, APC must please get serious. On
the other hand, President Jonathan targets two million jobs per annum but his
strategy for doing so is a Job Board— another committee of sort. Sorry, Mr. President, a Job Board is not a
strategy. The principal job Nigerians hired you to do for them is to create
jobs for them too. You cannot outsource that job, Sir. Creating 3 million jobs per annum under the
unfolding crisis would task our creativity and audacity to the limits.
I heard one politician
argue that once we fix power, private sector would create jobs. Not
necessarily! Well, this government claims to have added 1,700MW to the national
grid and yet unemployment soars. Ask Greece, Spain, etc with power and
infrastructure and yet with high unemployment. Structural dislocations play a
key role. For example, currently in Nigeria, it is estimated that more than 60%
of graduates of our educational system are unemployable.
You can understand why many
of us are amused when the government celebrates that it has established twelve
more glorified secondary schools as universities. I thought they would have
told us how many Nigerian universities made it in the league of the best 200
universities in the world. That would have been an achievement. Surely, creating millions of jobs in this
economy would, among other things, require ‘new money’ and extraordinary system
of coordination among the three tiers of government plus the private sector.
Unfortunately, from what I
read, the CBN is largely likely to be asleep at this time the country needs the
most revolutionary finance. This is a topic for another day. Only the President
can lead this effort. Moreover, we are waiting for the two parties/candidates
to spell out HOW they will create jobs, whether it is the 20,000 jobs per state
by APC or 2 million per annum by President Jonathan. Let us know how you arrived at the figures.
Whichever of the two that is declared winner will have his job cut out for him,
and I expect him to declare a national emergency on job creation.
Surprisingly, none of the
parties/candidates has any grand vision about African economic integration, led
by Nigeria. There is no programme on how to make the naira the de facto
currency of ECOWAS or the international financial centre that can attract more
than $100 billion per annum.
Where is the strategy for
orchestrating the revolutionary finance to power the economy during this
downturn? For President Jonathan, I find it shocking that the most important
initiative of his government to secure the future of the economy by Nigeria
refusing to sign the ruinous Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the
European Union is not even being mentioned.
President Obasanjo saved Nigeria from the potential ruin of an ECOWAS
single currency while to his credit Jonathan safeguarded our industrial
sector/economy by refusing to sign the EPA. Or does the government not
understand the import of that? It will
be interesting to know the APC’s strategy for exploiting strategic alliances
within Africa, China, and the world for Nigeria’s prosperity.
If Buhari wins, he will
ride on the populist wind for “change”.
Most people I have spoken to who have decided to vote for Buhari do not
necessarily know the specifics of what he would offer or how Nigeria would be
different under him. I asked my driver, Usman, whom he would vote for
President.
He responded: “If they no
rig the election, na Buhari everybody go vote for”. I asked him why, and his
next response sums it: “The man dey honest. In short, people just want to see
another face for that villa”. But if he
wins, the honeymoon will be brief and the pressure will be immense to magically
deliver a ‘new Nigeria’ with no corruption, no boko haram or insecurity, jobs
for everyone, no poverty, infrastructure and power in abundance, etc.
As a first point, Buhari
and his team must realize that they do not yet have a coherent, credible agenda
that is consistent with the fundamentals of the economy currently. The APC
manifesto contains some good principles and wish-lists, but as a blue print for
Nigeria’s security and prosperity, it is largely hollow. The numbers do not add
up. Thus, his first job is to present a credible development agenda to
Nigerians.
The second key challenge
for Buhari and his team will be to transit and transform from a group of what I
largely refer to as aggrieved people’s congregation to build a true political
party with a soul from the patchwork of political associations. It is surely
easier to oppose than to govern. This
should not worry us much. After all, even the PDP which has been in power for
16 years is still an assembly of people held together by what I refer to as
dining table politics.
I am not sure how many
members can tell you what their party stands for or its mission and vision for
Nigeria. The third but more difficult agenda is cobbling together a truly
‘progressive team’ that will begin to pick the pieces. The lesson of history is that the best
leaders have been the ones who went beyond their narrow provincial enclaves to
recruit talents and mobilize capacities for national transformation.
In Nigeria’s history, the
two presidents who made the most fundamental transformation of the economy,
Babangida and Obasanjo, were exceptional in the quality of the teams they put
together. I therefore pray that Buhari will be magnanimous in victory – if he
wins—to put together a ‘team Nigeria’ for the rescue mission.
If Jonathan wins, then God
must have been magnanimous to give him a second chance to redeem himself. Most
people I know who support Jonathan do so either out of self-interest or fear of
the unknown. As a friend summed it: the
devil you know is better than the angel you do not know. One person assured me that we would see a
‘different Jonathan’ if he wins as he has been rattled by the harsh judgment of
history on his presidency so far. I just
pray that he is right. In that case, I
would just draw the President’s attention to two issues:
First, beside the coterie
of clowns who literally make a living with the sing-song of transformation
agenda, President Jonathan must know that it remains an empty slogan. His
greatest challenge is how to save himself from the stranglehold of his largely
provincial palace jesters who tell him he has done better than God, and seek
out ‘enemies’ and friends who can help him write his name in history.
Propaganda won’t do it.
Second, Jonathan must claw
back his powers as President of Nigeria. He largely outsourced them, and must
now roll his sleeves for a new beginning. I take liberty to tell you this
brutal truth: if you are not re-elected, there is little to remember your
regime after the next few years.
On 7th January 2004, I made
a special presentation to an expanded economic management team to set agenda
for the new year (as chief economic adviser). The focus of my presentation was
for us to identify seven iroko trees that would be the flagship markers for the
administration as well as how to finance them. I use the same framework to
evaluate your administration.
What I say to you, Mr.
President, is that your record of performance so far is like a farmland filled
with grasses. Yes, they are many but there is no tree, let alone any iroko
tree, that stands out. Think about this.
The beginning of wisdom for every President in his second term is to admit that
he is racing against time to cement his legacy. So far, your report card is not
looking great. You need a team of big
and bold thinkers, as well as with excellent execution capacity. So far, it is not working!
Under the executive
presidential system, Nigerians elected you to manage their economy. You cannot
outsource that job. Our constitution envisages a federal coordination of the
economy, and that function is performed by the National Economic Council (NEC)
with Vice-President as chairman. Indeed, the constitution and other laws of
Nigeria envisage the office of the VP as the coordinator on the economy.
All major economic
institutions of the federal government are, by law, chaired by the
Vice-President including the national planning (see functions of the national
planning commission as coordinator of federal government economic and
development programmes), debt management office, National Council on
Privatization, etc. As chairman of National Planning (with Ministers of
Finance, Agriculture, CBN governor, etc as members), the VP oversees the
federal planning and coordination.
Then the Constitution
mandates the VP as representative of the federal government to chair the NEC,
with only CBN governor and state governors as members—to coordinate national
economy between federal and states. No minister is a member of NEC. Many people
do not understand the logic of the design of our constitution and the role of
the VP. Of course, the buck stops on the
desk of Mr. President. Only the President and VP have our mandate to govern us.
Every other person is an
adviser/assistant. I bet that you will only appreciate this article AFTER you
leave office. Now that you are in power, truth will only hurt! Be assured that those of us who are prepared
to die for Nigeria will never spare you or anyone else this bitter truth.
Nigeria must survive and
prosper beyond Buhari or Jonathan!
Chukwuma Charles Soludo, CFR, was former CBN
Governor
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