The itinerary starts in Cornwall with a gathering of G7 leaders then comes Brussels for a Nato summit, plus meetings with presidents of the European Council and Commission.....
United States
Joe Biden crosses the Atlantic this week on a tide of goodwill. After four
years of Donald Trump, European leaders are grateful for the mere fact of a US
president who believes in democracy and understands diplomacy.
Trump had no
concept of historical alliance, strategic partnership or mutual interest. He
saw multilateral institutions as conspiracies against US power, which he could
not distinguish from his own ego. He heard European talk of a rules-based
international order as the contemptible bleating of weakling nations.
Biden’s
stated purpose is bolstering that order. In an article published in the
Washington Post on the eve of his trip, the president talks about “renewed” and
“unwavering” commitment to a transatlantic relationship based on “shared
democratic values”.
Biden intends
to orchestrate a surge of western solidarity as mood music ahead of a final
stop in Geneva, where he sits down with Vladimir Putin. On that front, a stable
chilling of relations will count as progress after the downright weirdness of
Trump’s willing bamboozlement by the Kremlin strongman.
A
re-enactment of cold war choreography would suit Putin by flattering his
pretence that Russia is still a superpower. In reality, Washington sees Moscow
as a declining force that compensates for its shrunken influence by lashing out
where it can, causing mischief and sowing discord. Putin is seen as an
irritant, not a rival.
That is in
marked contrast to the view of China – an actual superpower and the eastern
pole that Biden has in mind when he talks about reviving an alliance of western
democracies. In that respect, the repudiation of Trumpian wrecking-ball
rhetoric can be misleading. It sounds to European ears as if the new White
House administration is hoping to set the clock back to a calmer, less
combative epoch. In reality, Biden is coming to tell Europe to get its act
together in the coming race for global supremacy with Beijing.
By Europe, in
this context, the president also means Britain. Boris Johnson might imagine
himself a world leader of continental stature, but a US president is not
required to indulge that fantasy.
Biden takes a
dim view of Brexit, seeing it as a pointless sabotage of European unity. The
White House preferred Britain as a pro-US voice wielding influence inside the
EU. Since that function is lost, Brexit’s only utility is in making it easier
for the UK to embrace economic and strategic vassalage to the US. That means
toeing a hawkish line on China.
European
nations should not really have to pause for long if the choice is alignment
with Washington or Beijing. It is easy to muster resentment of US global
swagger and point out hypocrisies in its claim to be a beacon of political
freedom. But the alternative is an expansionist totalitarian state that
militates against democracy and is currently engaged in a genocide against the
Uyghurs.
If China were
a poorer country, Biden’s mission would be easier. But the economic gap between
the established superpower and the challenger is closing. Per capita, Americans
are still much better off, but China could overtake the US in gross domestic
product by the end of this decade. With that heft comes world-leading
technological capability with crossover military application that keeps the
Pentagon up at night.
During the
cold war, the Kremlin maintained a credible military rivalry with the west but
was not an economic competitor for long. The collapse of the Soviet model
seemed to prove that political freedom and prosperity came as a package. There
could be no enterprise without markets, no markets without fair rules, and no
enforceable rules without democracy. The Chinese Communist party’s hybrid model
of authoritarian capitalism appears to have disproved that theory.
When the G7
was conceived in the 1970s, its combined membership – the US, Canada, Britain,
France, Germany, Italy and Japan – comfortably represented a commanding share
of global wealth. There was a natural association of liberal democratic
institutions and economic success. Today, those seven nations’ combined GDP is
down to 40% of the world total.
Chinese money
gives Europe commercial incentives that compete with its high-minded rhetoric
on democratic values. China is Germany’s biggest export market. Smaller EU
members have welcomed Chinese investment in infrastructure and businesses,
although qualms are steadily growing about built-in political strings and
security trapdoors. A huge Brussels-Beijing trade deal, signed last year (much
to Washington’s dismay), is currently frozen as part of a tit-for-tat dispute
over European criticism of Chinese human rights abuses.
But EU
governments simply don’t feel US levels of urgency to contain China. Geography
is a factor – the US has a Pacific coast and strategic commitments to Taiwan,
where Britain and France, for all their naval bravado, are little more than
spectators. There is a conceptual difference too. As one diplomat puts it,
Europe doesn’t like what China does, but the US doesn’t like what China is. The
idea of the US being superseded as the paramount global power within the
current century is existentially appalling for Washington.
The Trump
phenomenon compounds that anxiety for the current White House administration.
It was a near-death experience for America’s constitutional order; an
intimation of mortality for a political and economic model that looked
insuperable at the dawn of the 21st century. The US president urges fellow
western leaders to show strength in solidarity because the prospect of division,
decline and the discrediting of democracy is more real than at any time in his
five-decade Washington career.
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